For many, the archetypal image of a lineman is the guy up in an aerial bucket working tirelessly to restore power in the aftermath of a storm. The sight of utility workers fighting the elements amidst downed trees and toppled utility poles represents humanity’s ability to respond and to thrive in the face of adversity. It’s a noble vision, and if the NOAA’s predictions for the 2024 hurricane season are any indication, it’s one we are going to see frequently over the coming months.
The 2024 Hurricane Season
Earlier this year, the meteorologists at the NOAA predicted this would be an “above-normal” hurricane season, their predictions were echoed by Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science. The confluence of above normal ocean temperatures, a La Niña, and reduced Atlantic wind shear all point the potential for a higher than normal number of named storms. The current prediction is for 17-25 named storms with the possibility of 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. This is in contrast to the historical averages, which hover around 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Colorado State’s most recent updated forecast, from July 9th, has slightly increased the forecast for hurricane activity this season. They note greater confidence in the forecast at this point in the year due to the “persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions.” Their original forecast called for 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. They have now increased that forecast to 25 named storms, 12, hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. They even breakdown the probabilities of a major hurricane (minimum category 3) hitting the continental United States (after July 8th), with the current odds being 57% of a strike anywhere along the east coast, gulf, or Florida Peninsula (the full-season average probability historically has been 43%).
These predictions come after the formation of three tropical storms so far this hurricane season. These storms includes Tropical Storm Alberto, which was the latest first named storm since 2014, Hurricane Beryl, and Tropical Storm Chris. Alberto and Chris were short lived, but Hurricane Beryl set records for, among other things, being the earliest forming category 5 storm and even though it lost intensity before eventually reaching Texas as a Category 1, it still left a tremendous amount of damage in its wake. The repairs from Beryl are still under way and have lead to some unfortunate incidents as utility customers have been impatient to have their power restored.
The aftermath of Hurricane Beryl in Texas demonstrates the power of even “lesser” hurricanes to wreak havoc. A weaker hurricane as far as wind speed can still dump a lot of water and spawn numerous tornadoes, and the prospect of dozens more hurricanes this season is sobering and points to the need for as much hurricane preparedness as possible.
The Impact on Electrical Utilities
Midway through July, the tropical storm activity has been slow following Beryl and Chris, however the most active period during the hurricane season is usually between mid-August and mid-October. Combine the odds of more storms than usual with the rapid population growth seen in certain hurricane vulnerable states, and electrical utility companies are likely going to be facing hurricane seasons like they have never seen before.
Texas and Florida have both seen population growth rates in excess of 5% since 2020 (compared to the national population growth of just 0.4%). The flood of new residents means millions of more people dependent on electric utilities and linemen to get the power back on. These millions of new residents have been coming in from places that are not necessarily familiar with hurricanes, which could add to the tension as utility customers deal with the aftermath of tropical storms and hurricanes for the first time. Sometimes the outages are just a matter of various levels of inconvenience, such as the AC being out or a refrigerator not working, and sometimes the outages are matters of life and death, such as with critical care medical equipment. But regardless of the level of inconvenience, millions of more residents will mean millions more people waiting on power restoration and millions more dollars at stake.
Electric utilities are not blind to these needs. Companies like Duke Energy have been working on grid resiliency in preparation for this and subsequent hurricane seasons. New innovations like “self-healing” technology and AI are promising and already producing positive results for consumers, but as the storms keep rolling in, the most resilient power distribution systems are still going to get tested. They are already being stretched to the limit by the exponential growth in the use of air conditioning (a technology which itself has helped accelerate the population growth in those areas, like the Gulf Coast, that are often threatened by hurricanes). The electric vehicle boom is adding its own strain, and surprisingly, crypto currency now accounts for as much as 2% of US energy usage. The more technology advances, the more electricity is needed to power it, and the more things go wrong when hurricanes roll in.
2024 and Beyond
The act of strengthening the grid will always be one of “continuous improvement,” but the ever present threat of hurricanes (or other natural disasters) demonstrates just how far away the world is from being unbothered by the forces of nature. There will always be calls for greater grid resiliency because there can always be improvement to grid resiliency, and it is hard to image a future in which linemen will not be needed to respond. As long as there are power lines, there will be the potential for them to need repair.
In the short term, the forecast for the 2024 hurricane season has electrical utilities and line crews stocking up and prepping “go bags.” The prospect of long days and nights trying to restore power is a present reality still for some in Texas, and is likely close at hand for other crews throughout the coastal regions. But in the long term, the prospect of a hurricane season anywhere near as bad as the forecasts for this season predict is a reminder of how vulnerable the grid (and the people reliant on it) remains to all kinds of natural (or possibly human created) disaster.
Trust Tallman
Tallman Equipment has been serving linemen for over 70 years, and while we cannot control or even predict the weather, we can supply linemen with the best tools and equipment to get the job done when hurricanes have done their worst. As a one stop shop for your linemen needs, we can test rubber, build or repair grounds and jumpers, and sell or rent all the gear necessary to restore power to the grid.
For additional reading related to hurricane season, ask yourself if you are making these heat related illness mistakes, and make sure you are stocked up on the must haves for storm season.
