Tropical Storm Rafael is moving through the western Caribbean and will intensify into a hurricane later today before entering the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will become less conducive for the system to hold that intensity later this week.

H​ere’s the latest status on this system: Tropical Storm Rafael is centered near Jamaica, and is moving northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Bands of heavy rain are currently training over Jamaica. Winds in the country’s capital, Kingston, have gusted between 30 and 40 mph.

H​ere’s the latest intensity and track forecast: Rafael will become a hurricane later today, possibly before it arrives in the Cayman Islands, then will strike western Cuba before moving into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

T​hereafter, Rafael is expected to weaken in the Gulf because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and somewhat cooler Gulf of Mexico water.

W​hat we know about future Rafael’s possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.

“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.

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