NAVISTAR’S CEO OFFERED HIS OUTLOOK ON THE HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK INDUSTRY’S TRANSITION TO BATTERY-ELECTRIC VEHICLES AT THE RECENT ELECTRIC UTILITY FLEET MANAGERS CONFERENCE.

The road to electrification for the heavy-duty truck industry will be long and challenging but ultimately inevitable, Navistar CEO Mathias Carlbaum told a group of 175 utility fleet professionals in June.

Speaking at the 71st Electric Utility Fleet Managers Conference in Williamsburg, Virginia, Carlbaum outlined a vision for the next decade and beyond, highlighting key milestones, hurdles and opportunities in the transition to electric vehicles.

Here are eight significant takeaways from Carlbaum’s keynote address.

1. The Class 8 truck market continues to face headwinds in 2024.
The Class 8 on-road truck market is expected to remain soft this year due to an extended freight recession and persistent supply chain constraints.

“The Class 8 on-road [market] is going through an extended severe freight recession. It’s been about 20 months where freight prices are down out there and have started to take a toll on [truck] acquisitions,” Carlbaum said. “As you know, all sectors have been, in the past years, a little bit handicapped by supply. And there was a very big spillover this year … We don’t see, short term, something coming up that would drive sales significantly [this year].”

2. Prepare for the EPA 2027 pre-buy surge to start as early as 2025.
Carlbaum expects a pre-buy surge in Class 8 truck orders starting in 2025, driven by the impending EPA 2027 emissions standards and the memory of supply shortages from 2021-2022.

“Not just because we hope that ’25 [sales are] going to get stronger, but here we see that the pre-buy effect of the EPA ’27 is already starting to show up in ’25,” he said.

Why so early?

“Some manufacturers might be putting out new [EPA 2027-compliant] vehicles already in ’26. So, we see some [fleets] will [pre-buy] already in ’25. The most important reason is that everybody remembers how hard it was to get vehicles back in ’21 and ’22.”

3. Supply chain challenges will continue.
While the supply chain issues are easing in some areas, constraints persist due to limited production capacity and supplier hesitancy to invest in traditional technologies amid the transition to electric vehicles.

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